Jose Abreu, the Cuban Ichiro

This article was originally posted on Batting Leadoff on May 19, 2014.

They couldn’t be any more different.

Jose Abreu, the Chicago White Sox’s rookie first baseman and reigning AL Player of the Month, is on a power-hitting rampage.  At six-foot-three and 255 pounds, the Cuban sensation looks like a man who was born to hit moonshots; he leads MLB with 15 home runs in only 42 games.

Ichiro is the greatest Japanese-born player in MLB history.  Lithe and trim, the mononymous outfielder is celebrated for his tremendous speed, defense, and volume of hits.  As a rookie in 2001, Ichiro led baseball in hits and stolen bases, and was MVP of the American League.  Three years later, he set the MLB record for most hits in a season.

Not much in common, you might think.  But there are two reasons that Abreu and Ichiro belong in the same sentence. 

First, Abreu, like Ichiro, is having a transcendent rookie season after stardom in a non-American league.  He stands out among a wide range of competitor sets:

• Cuban stars in MLB: Nobody doubts that Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig can mash, but through their first 42 games, Abreu has outshined them both.

 

• MLB in 2014: Abreu leads all batters in home runs, total bases, and AB/HR.  He leads the American League in slugging percentage and isolated power.

• All historical rookies: Abreu’s torrid bomb-hitting pace puts him among the all-time best starts.  Since MLB expanded in 1961, six players have hit 15 or more home runs in their first 50 games.  Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, and Mark McGwire are good company to be in.

 

When a rookie is on pace for 58 HR and 158 RBI, one naturally wonders about regression.  It’s a legitimate concern (remember Kevin Maas?), and his nagging ankle injury has landed him on the 15-day DL, and could make him less effective as the season wears on.

But Abreu is unusually well scouted for a Cuban player, belying his reputation as an unknown commodity.  His BABIP of .286 puts him in the bottom half of starting first basemen.  Most importantly, he can hit outside pitches to the opposite field.  As MLB Daily Dish’s Jasper Scherer points out, “[The] ability to go the other way is key for maintaining success as a power hitter, as big-league pitchers inevitably find ways to exploit hitters who can only pull the ball for power – a la Curtis Granderson.”

Source: FanGraphs

Abreu will cool off at some point, but it should be evident by now that the man can rake.  He or Masahiro Tanaka will be the AL Rookie of the Year.

The second similarity between Ichiro and Jose Abreu is somewhat more speculative, but more meaningful for the future of baseball. Ichiro was not the first Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) player to permanently break into MLB, but his 2001 MVP campaign removed all doubt that Japan’s best players could excel on baseball’s highest stage.  Since then, Hideki Matsui, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka have made the leap to MLB stardom, and teams have signed more Japanese players, as the chart below indicates.

Cuban-born stars in MLB are nothing new.  El Duque broke into the majors 15 years ago, and even casual baseball fans are aware of Aroldis Chapman, Jose Fernandez, and some kid who likes bat-flipping.  This season, there are 19 MLB players from Cuba; every front office knows that Serie Nacional (the island’s top league) has talent.

But if Jose Abreu’s dominance continues, I think that teams will accelerate their pursuit of Cuban stars, just as front offices looked to Japan for the next Ichiro-caliber star.  The Abreakout coincides with two other developments that make this outcome likely.

First, the Cuban government recently allowed its players to play in foreign professional leagues during the spring and summer, Serie Nacional’s offseason.  As Cuban players migrate to the Mexican League and NPB, they will have more exposure to AAA-level competition (Serie Nacional is considered equivalent to high-A ball), as well as to MLB scouts.  The Cuban government is hoping that letting players earn a salary overseas will discourage them from defecting, but with 30 MLB teams able to scout these players and open their wallets accordingly, this seems like wishful thinking to me.

So far, only three Cuban players have moved to overseas leagues under the new law.  The Mexican League, under pressure from Minor League Baseball to avoid running afoul of the U.S. embargo on Cuba, requires Cuban players to have residency in another country.  But it’s easy to imagine this rule changing; MLB history shows that teams will do anything for a competitive advantage, whether laudable or shady.  The more Cuban players who play overseas, the more who will obtain residency in Mexico or Japan and become eligible for MLB free agency.

Second, the current CBA creates strong incentives for MLB teams to seek out talent abroad.  It awards fewer compensatory draft picks, and imposes severe financial penalties for drafting over slot.  But as Batting Leadoff’s Max Fogle points out, the sanctions for exceeding MLB’s spending limits on international amateurs are comparatively weak.  Consequently, the Cubs, Yankees, and Rangers have spent aggressively on international amateurs in recent years.  Additionally, Cuban players who are 23 or older and have played at least three seasons in Serie Nacional are considered free agents, exempt from all spending caps.  Whether Cuban players enter MLB as free agents or international amateurs, their pursuit remains an area where big-market teams can flex their muscles.

Jose Abreu, like Ichiro, is having a monster rookie season.  If many more Cuban stars, like Alfredo Despaigne, take their talents to MLB, they will be able to say that Jose (and Yasiel, and Yoenis…) led the way.