Nelson Cruz, Cruisin' No More?

This article was originally published at Batting Leadoff on June 18, 2014.

Nelson Cruz may be the most hated man in the sabermetrics community.

It’s no secret that baseball analysts dislike aging sluggers coming off of a PED suspension. Cruz is one-dimensional: last season, he hit 27 HR with a .506 SLG (putting him in the top 20 of players with >250 PA), but is a butcher on defense (UZR/150 of -6.5) with poor plate discipline (in 2013, he swung at 30.8% of pitches outside the strike zone) and an unsightly walks-to-strikeout ratio (0.32 BB / K).

Last offseason, Cruz was deemed “the biggest land mine of the 2014 free agent class” and “perhaps the most overrated player in baseball” by FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron. In "A Frightening List of Nelson Cruz Comparisons", Cameron compared Cruz to a historical peer group of declining power hitters, and questioned the sanity of any front office willing to give him a multiyear contract. I almost expected to read that Nelson Cruz kicks puppies and backhands small children across the face for amusement.

So it comes as a surprise that Nelson Cruz is having an excellent offensive season with the Baltimore Orioles. He leads MLB with 21 homers, despite hitting only one in June. His .605 slugging percentage is third-best in baseball, his .301 ISO is fourth-best, and his wRC+ of 165 is eighth-best. Cruz is making the O’s look savvy for signing him to a low-risk one-year, $8 million contract.

But Cruz’s surge has abruptly short-circuited over the past two weeks, as his lone June homer would indicate. His OBP for June is .339, down from .383 during April and May. His power has totally cratered, from an ISO of .360 in April and May to .075 this month. Though he has 14 hits this month, only two have gone for extra bases. Orioles fans are left wondering why Cruz tore the cover off the ball in April and May, and why he’s underperforming this month.

Cruz’s offensive explosion in April and May didn’t coincide with a new approach at the plate. If anything, he became a more reckless swinger: his O-Swing (% of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) rose to 32.9%, while his O-Contact (% of pitches that batter makes contact with when swinging) fell to 51%. He made up for this by swinging at and making contact with more pitches in the strike zone. Unsurprisingly, his strikeouts remained high.

 

Cruz’s ability to hit fly balls, a good predictor of home runs, hasn’t changed either. His share of batted balls in the air, around 45% during April and May, lines up with his recent career average.

 

Part of why Cruz is hitting more bombs without putting a greater share of balls in the air is that his volume of hits is up from 2013. He’s also walking a little more and striking out a little less.

 

But what jumps off the page is his share of fly balls that have left the park: an otherworldly 28.6% in April and May. For comparison, Miguel Cabrera’s HR/FB during his 2012 Triple Crown season was 23%. Granted, Cruz’s HR/FB has always been high, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to maintain such a high homer-to-fly ball ratio all season.

 

The same information also sheds some light on his recent slump. In June, Cruz’s HR/FB ratio has been way below his career average, and he has hit more line drives and fewer fly balls. A quarter of the fly balls he does hit are landing harmlessly in the infield.

 

Cruz is reacting by doing what he does best: swinging more. He is swinging and making contact a little more often at pitches both inside and outside of the strike zone. He’s also punching out more.

 

He’s also swinging at more off-speed and breaking pitches, which is troubling since his ability to hit off-speed stuff for power has declined over the past few seasons.

From @jayhaykid: Nelson Cruz's slugging pct. vs. off-speed pitches last four seasons: 2010 .512, 2011 .491, 2012 .401, 2013 .344. — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 23, 2014

Whether this represents regression, a garden-variety slump, or pitchers approaching Cruz differently is hard to say, given that we’re talking about only 15 games. I’m inclined to believe that his power will revert to the numbers he’s put up in the past few seasons, since his HR/FB ratio and batted ball distributions are so far off his recent career trends.

The sabermetricians are correct to be on Nelson Cruz’s case, and it doesn’t make sense to sign older power hitters to long, lucrative contracts. Regardless, Orioles fans have to be happy with the unexpectedly high level of production they’ve gotten from Cruz this season. Despite his poor hitting over the past two weeks, both the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems expect him to regain his power stroke over the rest of the season.

 

With that said, O’s fans who expect Cruz to have a Chris Davis-like home run chase based on his play in April and May will probably be crushed.